1. Why in the News?
The Global Carbon Project (GCP) has released its 2025 report on fossil fuel emissions. The report, released during the climate negotiations in Belem, Brazil, provides key data on global and national emission trajectories and their impact on the remaining carbon budget.
What is India’s Emission Status?
- Slower Growth: India’s emission growth is projected to slow to 1.4% in 2025, a significant reduction from the 4% growth recorded in 2024.
- Causal Factors: This slowdown is attributed to a favourable monsoon (reducing cooling demand) and strong growth in renewable energy capacity, which limited the use of coal.
- Overall Rank: India remains the world’s third-largest carbon emitter (3.2 billion tonnes annually), following China (12 bt) and the U.S. (4.9 bt).
- Per Capita Emissions: India’s per capita emission (2.2 tonnes of CO2) is the second-lowest among the world’s 20 largest economies, underscoring the principle of climate equity.
- Primary Source: Coal continues to be the dominant fuel type contributing to India’s emissions.
What are the Key Global Trends?
- Overall Rise: Global fossil CO2 emissions are expected to rise by 1.1% in 2025, reaching 38 billion tonnes.
- Major Economies:
- China: Emission growth slowed to 0.4%, driven by strong renewable energy expansion.
- United States: Emissions are projected to grow by 1.9%.
- European Union: Emissions are projected to grow by 0.4%.
- Fuel Sources: The global rise is driven by all fossil fuel types: coal (+0.8%), oil (+1%), and natural gas (+1.3%).
- Land Use Change: Emissions from deforestation remain high (4 billion tonnes CO2/year), with reforestation offsetting only half of this amount.
What are the Implications for the 1.5°C Target?
- Budget Exhaustion: The report warns that the remaining carbon budget to limit global warming to 1.5°C is “virtually exhausted.”
- Remaining Window: The budget stands at 170 billion tonnes of CO2, equivalent to only four years of emissions at the 2025 rate.
- Expert Assessment: Scientists leading the study state that keeping warming below 1.5°C is “no longer plausible,” as the budget will likely be depleted before 2030.
- Weakening Sinks: Climate change is now reportedly reducing the absorption capacity of the planet’s land and ocean sinks, further accelerating the crisis.
