Why in the News?

The article focuses on the recent conclusion of the 6th U.S.-China Hong Kong Forum (CUSEF), titled “Circles for Peace,” held in Hong Kong on November 17–18, 2025.

• Strategic Dialogue: The forum served as a high-level, Track-II platform bringing together diplomats, academics, and policymakers from the U.S., China, and other global players (including India) to discuss the most pressing geopolitical and technological issues.
• Geopolitical Significance: The meeting highlighted the dramatic shift in U.S.-China relations, characterized by thinning trust and strategic anxiety, underscoring the urgency for new frameworks to manage great power competition.

Context and Background: The Paradigm Shift

The fundamental context of the forum is the failure of previous diplomatic strategies to contain the current scale of global power rivalry.

• Erosion of Old Frameworks: Traditional mechanisms like establishing “guardrails” or relying on simple “managed competition” are no longer considered adequate for the multi-domain, high-stakes contestation.
• Strategic Anxiety: The current environment is defined by a mutual expectation of “sudden shocks” and policy ruptures, which increases the potential for miscalculation and escalation.
• Domestic Politicization: The rivalry is increasingly penetrating the domestic politics of both the U.S. and China, limiting the room for diplomatic nuance and making consensus-building extremely difficult.

Analysis

A. The New Face of Rivalry: Technology and AI Governance

Technology, especially Artificial Intelligence (AI), is the central pillar of the new global contest. The core analytical challenge is managing the dual-use nature of these emerging technologies, where civilian innovation directly impacts military capability.

• Technological Sovereignty: The focus is on securing technological autonomy and resilience, as nations attempt to limit rivals’ access to critical inputs (e.g., semiconductors) while accelerating indigenous innovation.
• Governance Vacuum: There is an acute need for international governance mechanisms to address AI’s global risks, including issues of monopolisation, equity, transparency, and accountability. The debate extends to regulating technological competition in global commons like space (“the galaxy”) to prevent conflict.

B. Hong Kong: The Strategic “Middle Space”

Hong Kong’s unique role as a necessary platform for communication was strongly emphasized. Its utility stems from its ability to maintain connectivity and dialogue despite severe political friction.

Function	Role in Geopolitics
Connectivity	Maintains crucial links (financial, economic, professional) between conflicting powers.
Cultural Hybridity	Fosters understanding, allowing ideas and nuanced perspectives to cross boundaries when political messaging cannot.
People-to-People Relations	Sustains Track-II (unofficial) diplomacy, acting as an essential “ballast” to prevent the relationship from collapsing entirely.
Platform for Tech Debate	Provides a pragmatic, neutral venue for discussing high-stakes issues like international technology governance.

C. Lessons for Strategic Autonomy (Focus on India)

For India, the forum’s insights stress navigating the bipolar world by enhancing domestic strength rather than external dependence.

• Prioritizing Domestic Capability: The strategic imperative is to invest heavily in technology, economic capability, and robust institutions to build resilience against external shocks.
• Nuanced Diplomacy: India must continue its policy of Strategic Autonomy—engaging with all major poles (U.S., China, EU) based strictly on national self-interest, adapting strategies to the Indian context, and avoiding foreign policy rhetoric that does not serve its needs.

Key Challenges in the Current Paradigm

The forum identified several interwoven challenges that complicate global stability:

• Inadequate Crisis Management: The absence of reliable trust and established communication channels makes managing regional crises or unexpected military encounters extremely difficult.
• Competing Geopolitical and Global Risks: The need for cooperation on shared existential threats (e.g., climate change, pandemics, and supply chain fragility) is constantly undermined by the zero-sum logic of great power competition.
• Fragmentation of the Global Order: The rivalry fuels a trend toward economic and technological decoupling, leading to a fragmented system where global standards and norms are difficult to establish.

Way Forward: Principles for a Stable Future

The path toward a more stable global order necessitates multi-level action focused on cooperation in vulnerable areas.

1. Multi-level Engagement: Sustaining both official (Track-I) and unofficial (Track-II) dialogue is crucial. The reliance on soft power and middle spaces like Hong Kong must be prioritized to sustain contacts even during political freezes.
2. Focus on Stewardship: The global community must shift the mindset from competition to shared stewardship of the global commons (climate, health, AI safety, and space).
3. Strategic Prudence: Nations like India must act as a responsible anchor, exercising diplomatic caution and conviction while actively seeking to widen the narrow spaces for dialogue in the international system to maintain stability.

Conclusion

The “Circles for Peace” forum illustrates a sobering but critical truth: the global order is defined by managed complexity, not reconciliation. Hong Kong serves as a powerful symbol that imperfect, resilient spaces can sustain essential dialogue amid tension. For major powers, future success will be defined by their ability to balance technological ambition, diplomatic responsibility, and internal resilience to navigate a world where crises are cascading and trust is scarce.

UPSC CSE PYQ

Year	Question
2021	“The USA is facing an existential threat in the form of China, that is much more challenging than the erstwhile Soviet Union.” Explain.
2017	‘China is using its economic relations and positive trade surplus as tools to develop potential military power status in Asia’. In the light of this statement, discuss its impact on India as her neighbour.
2014	With respect to the South China sea, maritime territorial disputes and rising tension affirm the need for safeguarding maritime security… In this context, discuss the bilateral issues between India and China.
2023	Introduce the concept of Artificial Intelligence (AI). How does AI help clinical diagnosis? Do you perceive any threat to privacy of the individual in the use of AI in the healthcare?
2021	The newly tri-nation partnership AUKUS is aimed at countering China’s ambitions in the Indo-Pacific region. Is it going to supersede the existing partnerships in the region? Discuss the strength and impact of AUKUS in the present scenario.