India’s Progress On Its Climate Targets

After Reading This Article You Can Solve This UPSC Mains Model Question:

“India’s climate commitments reflect a careful balance between developmental priorities and environmental responsibility.”Examine India’s progress towards its climate targets in the light of this statement.(15 marks, 250 words) (GS-3 Environment)

Context:

In early 2026, the Supreme Court stayed its own order that defined Aravalli hills strictly by a 100-meter elevation threshold. Critics in warn this rule excludes 31.8% of the range, stripping legal protection from lower ridges. This fragmentation threatens India’s climate targets by accelerating desertification and destroying vital groundwater recharge zones for the National Capital Region.

Core Definitions:

1. Emission Intensity

• Significance: It serves as a metric for “carbon efficiency.” India’s goal is to decouple growth from emissions—meaning the economy grows while the amount of carbon required to produce that wealth shrinks.
• Formula: Emission Intensity = Total Emissions / Real GDP

2. Forest (The Triple Definition)

The definition is currently under heavy legal scrutiny due to the Forest Conservation (Amendment) Act, 2023 and recent Supreme Court interventions:

• Recorded Forest Area (RFA): Lands recorded as “forest” in any government record (Revenue or Forest Dept).
• Forest Cover (ISFR): Any land area of more than 1 hectare with a tree canopy density of more than 10%, irrespective of ownership or legal status.
• Deemed Forest: Areas that look like forests (dictionary meaning) but aren’t officially recorded. Note: The Supreme Court (2024-25) clarified that states must continue protecting these to maintain ecological balance.

3. Net Zero (Carbon Neutrality)

A state where the amount of greenhouse gases emitted into the atmosphere is balanced by the amount removed from the atmosphere.

• India’s Target: 2070.

4. Carbon Sink

A natural or artificial reservoir that accumulates and stores some carbon-containing chemical compound for an indefinite period.

• India’s NDC Goal: Create an additional sink of 2.5 to 3 billion tonnes of $CO_2$ equivalent through additional forest and tree cover by 2030.

India’s Climate Targets (The “Panchamrit” Goals):

The Panchamrit (Five Nectars) goals were unveiled at COP26 in Glasgow (2021) and form the bedrock of India’s updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). These five specific targets are:

1. Non-Fossil Energy Capacity

• Target: Reach 500 GW of non-fossil fuel energy capacity by 2030.
• Note: This includes solar, wind, nuclear, and large hydro.

2. Renewable Energy Share

• Target: Meet 50% of India’s cumulative electric power installed capacity from non-fossil fuel-based energy resources by 2030.
• Clarification: The original 2015 target was 40%; this was an upward revision.

3. Reduction in Total Carbon Emissions

• Target: Reduce total projected carbon emissions by 1 billion tonnes between now and 2030.
• Significance: This is a “volume-based” commitment aimed at slowing down the growth of absolute emissions.

4. Reduction in Emission Intensity

• Target: Reduce the emission intensity of GDP by 45% by 2030, compared to 2005 levels.
• Clarification: This was increased from the previous target of 33–35%.

5. Net-Zero Emissions

• Target: Achieve the target of Net Zero emissions by 2070.
• Definition: Balancing the amount of greenhouse gas produced with the amount removed from the atmosphere.

 Present Status:

1. Headline Achievements

• The 50% Milestone: In June 2025, India officially achieved 50% of its installed power capacity from non-fossil sources, hitting this 2030 NDC target five years ahead of schedule.
• Emission Intensity: India has reduced its emission intensity by ~36% (from 2005 levels). It is comfortably on track to meet or exceed the 45% reduction target by 2030.
• Carbon Sink: As per the latest government reports (PIB/ISFR), India has already created an additional sink of ~2.29 billion tonnes of $CO_2e$, nearly reaching the lower end of its 2.5–3 billion tonne target.
• Global Ranking: India currently ranks 23rd in the Climate Change Performance Index (CCPI) 2026 (a slight drop from previous years due to continued coal expansion, though still among the top-performing G20 nations).

2. Energy Mix Breakdown

As of late 2025, India’s total installed capacity crossed the 500 GW mark.

Source	Capacity (approx.)	Status / Growth
Solar Power	~132 GW	Leading the transition; 35 GW added in 2025 alone.
Wind Power	~54 GW	Crossed the 50 GW milestone in early 2025.
Non-Fossil Total	~262 GW	Includes Solar, Wind, Large Hydro (~50 GW), and Nuclear.
Fossil (Coal/Gas)	~246 GW	Still constitutes the majority of actual generation.

3. Implementation Status of Missions

• PM Surya Ghar: Over 1.8 million households have been solarized by early 2026 under the rooftop solar scheme.
• Green Hydrogen: The National Green Hydrogen Mission has moved into the “implementation phase” with the first major commercial pilot plants expected to go online by 2027-28.
• Carbon Market: The Carbon Credit Trading Scheme (CCTS) was fully operationalized in 2025, with intensity targets notified for sectors like Cement and Steel.

Key Government Initiatives:

1. The Power & Industry Sector (Mitigation)

• Carbon Credit Trading Scheme (CCTS): Fully operationalized in 2025-26, it replaces the old Perform, Achieve and Trade (PAT) scheme.
  • Status: It initially covers 9 energy-intensive sectors (including Steel, Cement, and Aluminum).
  • Mechanism: It uses a “Baseline-and-Credit” system where companies earn credits for reducing their emission intensity beyond a set benchmark. These credits are tradable on a domestic carbon market.
• National Green Hydrogen Mission (NGHM):
  • Target: Production of 5 MMT (Million Metric Tonnes) of Green Hydrogen per annum by 2030.
  • Present Status: By early 2026, the first commercial-scale pilot projects for Green Steel and Hydrogen-powered mobility (trucks and buses) have been launched with an outlay of ~₹19,744 crore.

2. The Energy Access Sector (Decentralization)

• PM-Surya Ghar: Muft Bijli Yojana:
  • Target: 10 million (1 Crore) households.
  • Status: As of January 2026, over 25 lakhs (2.5 million) households have installed rooftop solar.
  • Impact: Over 7.7 lakh households have reported zero electricity bills, significantly reducing the load on coal-fired grids.

3. The Transport Sector (E-Mobility)

• PM E-DRIVE Scheme: Subsumed the previous FAME-II/EMPS initiatives; active from 2024 to March 2026.
  • Budget: ₹10,900 crores.
  • Status: Successfully incentivized over 2.8 lakh electric 3-wheelers (L5 category) and nearly 24 lakh electric 2-wheelers by the end of 2025. It now includes a Payment Security Mechanism (PSM) for e-buses to encourage private operators.

4. The Ecosystem & Carbon Sink (Sequestration)

• MISHTI (Mangrove Initiative for Shoreline Habitats & Tangible Incomes):
  • Target: Restoration of 540 sq. km of mangroves across 11 states/UTs by 2028.
  • Progress: Approximately 35% of the target (nearly 190 sq. km) has been achieved by 2026, with Gujarat leading the plantation efforts.
• Green Credit Program (GCP):
  • Concept: A voluntary market-based mechanism to reward “pro-planet” actions.
  • Current Focus: Primarily tree plantation on degraded forest lands. By 2026, credits are being used by industries to meet their Compensatory Afforestation obligations.

5. Behavioral Change

• LiFE (Lifestyle for Environment): India’s signature global movement.
  • Latest Step: The notification of Eco-Mark Rules (2024-25) to encourage consumer demand for resource-efficient and environment-friendly products.

Challenges:

1. The “Generation-Capacity” Gap

• The Reality: As of early 2026, non-fossil sources make up over 51% of installed capacity, but they only contribute ~22-25% of actual electricity generation.
• Baseload Reliability: Coal still accounts for ~75% of actual generation. Because solar and wind are intermittent, the grid relies on coal to provide “baseload” power (steady supply) during the night or calm days.

2. The Storage Bottleneck

• Massive Deficit: The Central Electricity Authority (CEA) projects a need for ~336 GWh of storage by 2030. Currently, India has less than 1 GWh of operational Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS).
• Critical Minerals: India is nearly 100% dependent on imports for lithium, cobalt, and nickel—the “building blocks” of batteries—primarily from China and the DRC.

3. Absolute Emissions vs. Intensity

• The Paradox: India’s Emission Intensity is falling (meaning we are getting more “green” per unit of GDP), but our Absolute Emissions are still rising (up ~5.3% in 2024).
• Growth Pressure: Massive urbanisation and cooling demand during record-breaking heatwaves are forcing India to keep older coal plants running and even plan 80 GW of new coal capacity by 2032.

4. The Aravalli Legal & Ecological Crisis

A significant challenge to the Carbon Sink target (2.5-3 billion tonnes) is the protection of existing natural barriers like the Aravallis.

• The “100-Meter” Rule: In late 2025, a Supreme Court-accepted definition classified “Aravalli hills” only as landforms 100 meters or higher.
• The Risk: Critics argue this excludes nearly 30% of the range (lower ridges and valleys). If these areas are “de-classified,” they become vulnerable to mining and real estate, destroying vital groundwater recharge zones and allowing the Thar Desert to expand eastward.

5. DISCOM Financial Stress

• Distribution Companies (DISCOMs) remain the “weakest link.” High-paying industrial customers are moving to their own solar plants (captive power), leaving DISCOMs with poor consumers and massive debt. This prevents them from investing in the “Smart Grids” needed to handle renewable energy.

Way Forward:

A. Energy Sector: From “Capacity” to “Generation”

• Scaling Storage (BESS & Pumped Hydro): India must prioritize the National Energy Storage Policy to bridge the gap where 51% capacity only provides 22% generation. Investing in Sodium-ion or Solid-state batteries can reduce the “lithium dependency” on imports.
• Green Hydrogen Ecosystem: Accelerate the SIGHT (Strategic Interventions for Green Hydrogen Transition) program to decarbonize “hard-to-abate” sectors like heavy shipping and steel, where solar/wind cannot directly be used.
• Grid Modernization: Deployment of Smart Grids and “Digital Twins” to manage the intermittency of renewables and prevent the need for keeping old coal plants as standby “baseload.”

B. Ecological Resilience: Protecting Natural Sinks

• Aravalli Landscape Management: Moving away from the “100-meter height” definition toward a Landscape-level approach. The Supreme Court’s 2026 directive to prepare a Management Plan for Sustainable Mining (MPSM) must ensure that lower ridges and valleys—vital for groundwater recharge—are not sacrificed for mining.
• Quality over Quantity in Forestry: Shift focus from mere plantation numbers (under CAMPA) to Assisted Natural Regeneration (ANR). This ensures that the carbon sink target of 2.5–3 billion tonnes is met with diverse, native forests rather than monoculture timber plantations.

C. Market & Finance

• Operationalizing the Indian Carbon Market: Transitioning the Carbon Credit Trading Scheme (CCTS) from “intensity-based” targets to “absolute caps” for major polluters by 2030.
• Climate Finance: Continued global advocacy (via platforms like the G20 or COP) for the promised $100 billion annual climate fund from developed nations, which is essential for India’s technology transfer needs.

 Conclusion

India is a “climate overachiever” in terms of its initial Paris promises but faces a steeper climb for its 2070 Net Zero goal. Success will depend on whether India can bridge the gap between installed capacity and actual generation through storage technology and global financial cooperation.