Context
- Recently, NITI Aayog released the ninth edition of “Trade Watch Quarterly” for Q1 FY27 (April–June 2026), providing an assessment of global and domestic trade trends.
Macro Trade Dynamics & External Sector Performance
- Global Overview: Global goods trade reached $13.7 trillion in H1 CY2026 (12.5% y-o-y growth), while global services trade grew by 10.5%.
- India’s Trade Volume: Total trade touched $506.9 billion in Q1 FY27, marking a 15.5% y-o-y growth.
- Merchandise Export Drivers: Growth was anchored by mineral fuels, electrical machinery, nuclear reactors, iron and steel, and automotive shipments.
Market Diversification & Strategic Integration
- India’s trade geography is shifting toward non-traditional partner countries and deeper integration via trade agreements.
- Export Destinations: Tanzania and South Africa entered India’s top ten export markets, alongside continued expansion in Singapore.
- Import Sourcing: Crude oil sourcing diversified with higher inflows from Latin America and West Africa, while Northeast Asia, West Asia-GCC, and ASEAN supplied nearly 50% of total imports.
- FTA Trade Momentum: Trade with Free Trade Agreement (FTA) partners expanded significantly- exports surged by 36.3% and imports grew by 10.0%.
Digitally Delivered Services (DDS) Ranking
- Global Ranking: India moved from the 5th to the 4th largest exporter of Digitally Delivered Services, trailing only the US, UK, and Ireland.
- Growth: DDS exports rose from $277 billion in 2024 to $317 billion in 2025 (15% y-o-y increase).
Thematic Deep-Dive: Metals & Ores Sector
- The report highlights metals and critical minerals as vital for advanced manufacturing, renewable energy transition, and infrastructure development.
- Export Strength & Composition
- Metals exports stood at $34.8 billion in 2025.
- Iron, steel, articles of iron/steel, and aluminium comprised ~78% of total metal exports, reflecting strong international competitiveness.
- Import Dependence & Strategic Minerals
- Imports nearly doubled from $32.2 billion (2015) to $60.5 billion (2025).
- Driven by demand for critical transition minerals: Copper, Lithium, Cobalt, and Nickel.
Policy & Trade Competitiveness
- Recent reforms under the Mines and Minerals (Development and Regulation) Act, 1957, including the MMDR Amendment Act, 2026, are highlighted as measures that can support investment in exploration, mine development and critical minerals.
- The EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) creates a need for greater competitiveness and decarbonisation of India’s steel and aluminium exports.
- A coordinated approach covering resource security, logistics, financing, renewable energy, trade safeguards, CBAM preparedness and critical-mineral recycling can strengthen India’s position in global markets.
Conclusion
The Trade Watch Quarterly provides a data-driven assessment of India’s evolving position in global trade and value chains. Its latest edition particularly highlights the strategic importance of metals, critical minerals and higher-value manufacturing for India’s industrial growth, energy transition and long-term trade competitiveness.